Predicting future forest fire occurrence probability based on drought characteristics at various temporal scales in P. R. China.

ABSTRACT: Future climate change will lead to extreme weather events, such as droughts, which may exacerbate forest fire regimes. However, the impact of future drought characteristics on forest fire regimes has rarely been reported in China. Here, we employed principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of drought characteristics, and then used geographically weighted logistic regression models to develop predictive models. These models were applied to future climate simulations under different scenarios to provide projections for different periods, which were then compared with the historical period (2000-2019) to assess the relative changes. We found that the model performed well in its predictions (AUC > 0.75). By comparing the Brier scores, it was found that the models with better pr

SUBMITTER: Shao X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12671787 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature