The Potential Distribution of <i>Phytophthora nicotianae</i> in China on the Basis of MaxEnt Model Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Tobacco black shank, caused by Phytophthora nicotianae, is characterized by rapid outbreak onset and high control difficulty, posing a persistent threat to tobacco production in China. To assess its potential geographic distribution and management risks under climate change, this study employed 410 verified occurrence records and 32 environmental variables to construct a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, with key variable interpretation supported by an XGBoost-SHAP framework. The model simulated a suitable habitat under current conditions and four CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from 2021 to 2100. The optimized model (AUC = 0.959) identified eight key environmental predictors, including the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), annual pr

SUBMITTER: Bi C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12675825 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature