Quantifying the Lagged Effects of Climate Variables on Malaria Risk in Eastern Uganda.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is anticipated to significantly affect malaria transmission. Previous research has shown lagged, nonlinear associations between climate variables and malaria risk, with highly context-specific exposure-lag-response relationship. Using weekly malaria case data collected between July 2018 and February 2023 from a health facility within the Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in Uganda and remotely sensed temperature and rainfall data, we quantified the associations between temperature and rainfall and risk of developing symptomatic malaria using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Furthermore, we investigated whether these associations varied by age group. Our analysis revealed a lag of 2 to 8 weeks between exposure to rainfall exceeding 200 mm/week an

SUBMITTER: Kim S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12676583 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature