Quantitative-genetic analysis of directional adaptation suggests low maximum sustainable rates of change in agreement with data from field populations.

ABSTRACT: What rates of directional change are species likely to be capable of sustaining indefinitely such as in response to a warming climate? We derive estimates of the maximum rates of phenotypic change that populations can sustain in response to a directionally changing environment, using a quantitative genetics simulation model whose parameters are calibrated with data from natural populations. Sustainable directional change is largely limited to ≤2-4% of a trait standard deviation per generation, in agreement with an estimate derived from quantitative-genetic theory and with published field studies. Data from thirty-seven longitudinal field-studies of species' phenological responses to a warming climate yield rates of change that fall in the 68th-86th percentiles of our predictions for what p

SUBMITTER: Pagel M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12678822 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature