Climate change refugia in Canadian prairies: assessing range shifts and identifying breeding habitats for grassland songbirds.

ABSTRACT: The identification of climate change refugia is fundamental for climate-smart conservation planning, especially in highly altered landscapes, such as temperate grasslands. Our study aimed to identify breeding refugia for three focal grassland birds: Baird's sparrow (Centronyx bairdii), Sprague's pipit (Anthus spragueii), and thick-billed longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii) across the Canadian prairies. We used species distribution models to identify breeding refugia within the climatically suitable range for two time periods (2050 and 2080) under two of the most likely climatic scenarios ("intermediate scenario" RCP 4.5 and "worst-case scenario" RCP 8.5). In doing so, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating species-specific dispersal ability and projected shifts in grassland habitats

SUBMITTER: Shrestha R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12680839 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature