Time series forecasting of red blood cell demand in hematology patients using SARIMA and exponential smoothing models: a retrospective analysis in a Chinese tertiary hospital.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Red blood cells (RBCs) infusion is very important for the treatment of hematology patients, but how to maintain a balanced state between the supply and demand of RBCs is still a major challenge.

Objective

This study aimed to explore the feasibility of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and exponential smoothing (ES) model in predicting the clinical demand of RBCs for hematology patients each month.

Methods

Our study collected the monthly RBCs usage data of hematology patients from January 2014 to December 2023 to establish the SARIMA model and ES model, respectively. Then, the optimal model was used to forecast the monthly usage of RBCs from January to June 2024, and we subsequently compared the data with actual values to evalu

SUBMITTER: Liu J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12682652 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature