Increased rainfall-runoff drives flood hazard intensification in Central Himalayan river systems.

ABSTRACT: The Central Himalayan floodplain is one of the most flood-affected regions of the world, but we have limited knowledge of climate-change impacts on fluvial floods. Here, we provide the first large-ensemble, regional climate-change impact assessment of design floods for the Karnali River in Nepal and China, based on high-resolution modelling, considering climatic, hydrological and statistical uncertainties, needed for building local mitigation strategies. Our simulations project increases in the 1% annual exceedance probability flood magnitude of + 40% (P_10/90: 33/48%) (medium-emissions) and + 79% (P_10/90: 54/82%) (high-emissions) for 2060-2099, with rainfall-runoff contributing ≥ 90% of the additional flood water. We show that the uncertainty in the projections is lin

SUBMITTER: Pink I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12685963 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature