Modeling Phenological and Physiological Responses to Climate Warming in a Hypothetical Migratory Songbird-Mosquito System.

ABSTRACT: Given the strong temperature dependence of ectothermic vector physiology, climate warming is expected to profoundly impact many vector-borne diseases. Notably, endothermic hosts can also respond to warming by altering the timing of life history events like seasonal migration and reproduction, but relatively few predictive models of vector-borne disease have considered both phenological and physiological responses to climate warming. Here, we extend the Ross-MacDonald model for a vector-borne disease to incorporate temperature effects on host and vector phenology and physiology. We use this model to understand how projections of moderate and severe warming influence the emergence of a hypothetical vector-borne disease in a migratory bird. Modeled vector and host infection prevalence always

SUBMITTER: Ragonese IG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12696666 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature