Decomposing the effects of changes of population size, age-sex profile, health status and residual factors on growth in hospital activity in English hospitals: an ecological database study from 2011-2019.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hospitals are central to healthcare systems and understanding the drivers of hospital activity is critical for effective capacity planning, especially amid demographic shifts and fiscal pressure. In the English National Health Service (NHS), there are plans to construct 40 new hospitals. There is limited evidence on factors driving hospital activity. This study provides retrospective estimates of the effects of population growth (P), changes in the age-sex structure (S), shifts in age-specific health status (H), and residual factors (R) on hospital activity in England.

Methods

Total annual growth is modelled as G = (1 + P)(1 + S)(1 + H)(1 + R) - 1. Negative binomial regression models using hospital episode statistics from 2011 to 2019 were used to decompose total

SUBMITTER: Wyatt S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12709711 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature