Future methane emissions from lakes and reservoirs.

ABSTRACT: Global lake and reservoir water surfaces were recently estimated to contribute ~10% of global methane (CH₄) emissions. The sensitivity of these emissions to climate and environmental change is a growing concern. Here we present data-driven, globally gridded modelling of future open-water CH₄ fluxes under different scenarios. We included multiple potential predictor variables and available peer-reviewed flux data focusing on in situ-verified relationships. The results indicate total lake and reservoir CH₄ emissions increases of 24-91% under the IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 by 2080-2099. Effects of changed temperature and seasonality dominated these increases. Area and nutrient load changes also contrib

SUBMITTER: Bastviken D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12711573 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature