Super El Nino events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming.

ABSTRACT: Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are becoming more frequent. Here, using multiple observations and model simulations, we find that the likelihood of CRS occurrence significantly increases in the context of super El Niño events due to their remarkable climate perturbations. This higher probability is detected across various climate elements, such as surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and surface soil moisture. In addition, we suggest that this boost effect of super El Niño events on CRSs will be greatly amplified under

SUBMITTER: Xue A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12717066 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature