Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates.

ABSTRACT: Predictable modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a major influence on regional weather patterns, an important control on wildfire occurrence. Although these global climate modes have been associated with historical variability in wildfire occurrence in the United States and are used to forecast seasonal wildfire risk, precise information about the spatial pattern and magnitude of their influence is lacking and the satellite record of wildfires is too short to address these issues. Here we use wildfire occurrence model with a large ensemble of 1600 simulated years from EC-Earth3 in a recent climate (2000-2009) and a future climate corresponding to + 2 °C global warming, to characterise the impact of specific climate modes on wildfire occurrence

SUBMITTER: Keeping TR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12717122 | biostudies-literature | 2026

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature