Projecting tuberculosis control progress in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil, 2001-2035: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Despite advancements in tuberculosis (TB) control policies in Brazil, the disease remains a significant public health concern. This study aimed to analyze long-term trends and projections of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence rates in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil from 2001 to 2035, as well as to quantify the contributions of demographic and epidemiological changes to these patterns.

Methods

This ecological study used national PTB case notification data reported to Brazil's Notifiable Diseases Information System from 2001 to 2020. Joinpoint regression was applied to identify changes in temporal trends. Age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on disease risk. A decomposition analysis was

SUBMITTER: da Silva JMN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12720469 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature