Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.

ABSTRACT: During an outbreak, infectious disease can spread among populations through host movement, potentially fueling local outbreaks with their own epidemiological dynamics. However, it is difficult to know how often infections between populations are transmitted by diseased travelers infecting healthy residents when abroad, rather than by diseased residents infecting healthy travelers, who later return home with the new pathogen. In this paper, we introduce a phylogeographic model where pathogens spread through visitor dynamics, whereby hosts "visit" other populations for short trips before returning home. To do so, we used the stationary properties of an epidemiological compartment model with visitor dynamics to construct an approximation that is statistically accurate and computationally trac

SUBMITTER: Soewongsono AC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12723985 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature