Mapping Endangered Plant Distributions, Species Richness, and Climate Refugia Under SSP Climate Scenarios in South Korea.

ABSTRACT: Climate change significantly threatens the survival and distribution of endangered plants. This study quantified current and future patterns of habitat suitability and species richness for legally protected vascular plants in South Korea under two SSP climate scenarios. We modeled the distributions of 69 species designated as Class I or Class II endangered wild plants and evaluated in the Korean National Red List using IUCN criteria. Random Forest (RF) species distribution models were fitted with environmental predictors derived from 1 km² national climate data for a 2010 baseline and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projections for the 2030s-2090s. Cross-validation indicated high model performance (mean AUC = 0.913; TSS = 0.818; Kappa = 0.605), and 61 species (88.4%) achieved an AUC ≥ 0.8

SUBMITTER: Lee JH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12736564 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature