Interplay between climate and childhood mixing can explain a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan.

ABSTRACT: Titrating the importance of endogenous and exogenous drivers for host-pathogen systems remains an important research frontier towards predicting future outbreaks. In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a major childhood respiratory pathogen, displayed a sudden, dramatic shift in outbreak seasonality (from winter to fall) in 2016. We use mathematical models to identify processes that could lead to this outcome. In line with previous analyses, we identify a robust quadratic relationship between transmission against mean specific humidity and mean temperature, with maximum transmission occurring at low and high humidity as well as low and high temperature. This drives semiannual patterns of seasonal transmission rates that peak in summer and winter. Under this transmission regime, a sub

SUBMITTER: Park SW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12738541 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature