Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change.

ABSTRACT: Previous attribution studies of heat-related excess mortality have given limited attention to temporal trends in vulnerability and their non-climatic drivers. Here, we address this gap by combining counterfactual temperature data derived from multidecadal reanalysis series with time-varying warm-season temperature-mortality associations for the 15 most populous cities in Germany over 1993-2022. We find that declining vulnerability, associated with improvements in life expectancy, has led to decreasing trends in heat-related excess mortality in most cities despite summer warming. In contrast, if life expectancies had not improved, climate change would have induced increasing trends in the heat-related death burden. The growing anthropogenic fingerprint also emerges in the relative proportio

SUBMITTER: Huber V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12748886 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature