Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Growing attention to decarbonization to limit global warming raises an important question of whether climate mitigation efforts could effectively prevent a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major tipping element in the climate system. Using CO₂ stabilization simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 1, we show a marked ensemble divergence in AMOC evolution under identical or comparable CO₂ forcing, towards either recovery or a multi-century collapsed state. This divergence arises from the accumulation of stochastic noise near the AMOC stability threshold, characterized by persistent high-pressure anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic. In other words, internal atmospheric variability can push the AMOC ac

SUBMITTER: Oh JH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12749622 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature