A theoretical model of secular body mass index dynamics among Russian adults under changing socio-economic conditions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Body mass index (BMI) is a key indicator of population health and often shifts alongside socio-economic change. Few studies have tracked these dynamics over long periods in transitional economies. Russia's late-twentieth-century transformations offer a rare opportunity to examine such links. This study develops and validates a time-series model of BMI in 19 years old, relating changes in socio-economic and demographic indicators to BMI trends and producing scenario-based forecasts.

Materials and methods

We analyzed national time-series data published by the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration for 1975-2016 (males and females, age 19), along with indicators of urbanization, fertility, infant and all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and nutritional proxies (protein suppl

SUBMITTER: Negasheva MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12750930 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature