Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was an acute infectious disease. This study aimed to estimate the development trend of HFMD.

Methods

The incidence surveillance data of HFMD from 2005 to 2019 mainly came from the Public Health Sciences Data Center of China. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was compared with other models to evaluate the accuracy of the incidence of HFMD and to predict its incidence up to 2030.

Results

A total of 22,559,406 cases of HFMD were reported. The test results showed that BAPC model may be better than Auto-regressive integrated moving average (Auto_arima), Exponential smoothing (ETS), Prophet and Earth models on mean absolute error (MAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), mean square error (MSE) and root mea

SUBMITTER: Tian G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12751474 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature