Precipitation disaster hotspots depend on historical climate variability.

ABSTRACT: Record-high precipitation events are relevant for impacts since they are more severe than any observed event and can lead to unforeseeable consequences. Climate change increases average record-breaking probability, but the current, local record-breaking probability and local disaster preparedness are dependent on observed precipitation history as well. Here, we show that historical variability shapes current and future record-breaking probabilities: regions with low current records are more at risk. Climate change modifies this pattern non-linearly: moderate climate change (SSP2-4.5) increases average record-breaking probability by 2050 by 40%, but high current records are most sensitive to climate change with a record-breaking probability increase of up to 75%. Thus, regions with low curr

SUBMITTER: de Vries I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12764945 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature