Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.

ABSTRACT: Interventions to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 significantly disrupted the transmission of other pathogens. As interventions lifted, whether and when human pathogens would eventually return to their prepandemic dynamics remains to be answered. Here, we present a framework for estimating pathogen resilience based on how fast epidemic patterns return to their prepandemic dynamics. By analyzing time series data from Hong Kong, Canada, Korea, and the United States, we quantify the resilience of common respiratory pathogens and further predict when each pathogen will eventually return to its prepandemic dynamics. Our predictions are able to distinguish which pathogens should have returned already, and deviations from these predictions reveal long-term impacts of pandemic perturbations. We find

SUBMITTER: Park SW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12768453 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature