Systematic prediction of spatiotemporal transmission of potential respiratory pandemics in China.

ABSTRACT: Population movement significantly influences respiratory disease transmission; however, movement restrictions can impose substantial societal burdens. To understand spatiotemporal characteristic of a potential respiratory pandemic in Chinese mainland which could help in precise control, a spatiotemporal transmission model incorporating population movement dynamics was developed. The model was calibrated using Corona Virus Disease of 2019 data collected from an online survey of 3 million respondents conducted in December 2022. With the model, simulated hypothetical respiratory pandemics originating from each province and successfully predicted province-level transmission paths, peaking times and peaking infections. Beijing was identified as the most important location within the transmissio

SUBMITTER: Liu X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12809080 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature