Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts.

ABSTRACT: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly of the H5 subtype, remains a persistent threat to poultry, wildlife, and public health across Asia. This study quantifies the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) as the primary predictor, on the climate-driven dynamics of H5 HPAI through region- and host-stratified generalized additive models (GAMs). Seven region-host strata across Asia were modeled separately, revealing pronounced heterogeneity in event frequency. A clear negative correlation with MEI was identified in domestic poultry across East and South Asia, where higher MEI values, corresponding to El Niño conditions, were linked to reduced event frequencies. In contrast, wild bird populations in East and South Asia displ

SUBMITTER: Su Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12818151 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature