Age-specific impact of COVID-19 on birth rates in Japan: An interrupted time-series analysis using national vital statistics.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

A study investigating the impact of COVID-19 on birth rates across women's age groups has not been previously conducted in Japan. Therefore, we examined this issue using national birth data.

Methods

The analysis utilized monthly live birth data from the Vital Statistics from 2015 to 2023, which were accessed on July 27, 2025. We estimated the expected number of births in the post-pandemic period through quasi-Poisson regression analysis and calculated the ratios of the sum of actual births to that of predicted births for each women's age group. In addition, a segmented regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of the pandemic on birth rates, focusing on changes in level and trend across age groups.

Results

The ratios of the sum of actual births

SUBMITTER: Okui T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12822959 | biostudies-literature | 2026

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature