Post-selection inference for causal effects after causal discovery.

ABSTRACT: Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform the estimation of causal effects (e.g., average treatment effects) when there is uncertainty about which covariates ought to be adjusted for, or which variables act as confounders versus mediators. However, naively using the data twice, for model selection and estimation, would lead to invalid confidence intervals. Moreover, if the selected graph is incorrect, the inferential claims may apply to a selected functional that is distinct from the actual causal effect. We propose an approach to post-selection inference that is based on a resampling and screen

SUBMITTER: Chang TH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12849794 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature