Trends and projections of PM_2.5-attributable disease burden in China: a GBD 2021-based analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) remains a major environmental health risk in China. This study aimed to comprehensively characterize the long-term trends and epidemiological patterns of PM_2.5-attributable disease burden across the country.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, we performed a longitudinal analysis of PM_2.5 disease burden from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized rates. The age-period-cohort model was employed to stratify the impact of age, periods, and birth cohorts on disease burden. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project trends for the period 2022-2036.

Results<

SUBMITTER: Fang T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12852448 | biostudies-literature | 2026

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature