Utility of compartmental models to test the competing hypotheses of pathogen evolution and human intervention.

ABSTRACT: Compartmental models are essential for studying host-pathogen dynamics, evaluating intervention effectiveness, and predicting infection trends. However, the utility of these models for testing competing hypotheses is often overlooked. To address this, we propose a new model-based hypothesis testing (MBHT) approach, which uses compartmental models to evaluate the hypotheses in epidemiology. In our case, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, we formulate hypotheses of SARS-CoV-2 mutation and construct a transmission model to test them. In addition to analyzing steady-state stability, deriving the basic reproduction number, and identifying a backward bifurcation, the model is fitted to seven peaks of U.S. COVID-19 data, each corresponding to periods of viral mutation and morbidity peak

SUBMITTER: Saha B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12853639 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature