Increased interannual variability of Sahel rainfall under greenhouse warming.

ABSTRACT: The Sahel is home to tens of millions of people in developing regions and is frequently influenced by extreme events such as drought and floods. Multi-model mean projections indicate an increase in Sahel mean rainfall under greenhouse warming, but how Sahel rainfall interannual variability and extreme seasons might change is unclear. Using the latest generation of climate models, here we find that under a high emission scenario, Sahel rainfall variability increases, featuring a higher frequency of both extreme wet and dry seasons. The increase of rainfall interannual variability is stronger in the central-eastern Sahel than in the western Sahel. The increase in variability is due to several factors, including a projected increase in El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability, which leads to

SUBMITTER: Yang K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12855173 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature