Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation favors more typhoons toward Asian high-latitude cities.

ABSTRACT: Poleward migration of Northwest Pacific typhoons brings severe impacts on East Asian high-latitude cities, yet early typhoon climate prediction remains a long-standing scientific challenge. Here we reveal a seemingly-familiar-yet-strange climate oscillation phenomenon, which we name Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation (TAO). Statistical results show that springtime TAO can explain 56% of the variance in a dominant dipole mode of typhoon track variations during July-September of 1979-2023, suggesting that it possesses a robust predictive skill of peak-season typhoon tracks four months in advance. Specifically, springtime TAO is characterized by a sea-level pressure seesaw between the tropical North Atlantic and the Hudson Bay-Davis Strait, relating to the meridional shift of North America

SUBMITTER: Wu Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12858986 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature