Making cigarette taxes more effective in Mozambique: A simulation analysis using the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM).

ABSTRACT: Cigarette price tax shares in Mozambique are among the lowest in Southern Africa. The excise tax share of the price of the most-sold brand is 14.7%, and the total tax share is 28.5%. The average excise tax share for the Southern African Development Community is 36.7% and the average total tax share is 51.6%. We used the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM), to simulate the impact of a substantial cigarette excise tax increase on prices, tax shares, consumption, tax revenue, and smoking prevalence, between 2023 and 2028. We simulated three scenarios. Scenario 1 assumes that the cigarette excise tax adjustments are as stipulated in the Excise Tax on Specific Products Law for 2023-2025, and then increase by 4% annually between 2026 and 2028. Scenario 2 proposes that the excise tax inc

SUBMITTER: Darsamo V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12863564 | biostudies-literature | 2026

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature