Evaluating the impact of achieving cascade equality in Eswatini: a modeling study on the prevention impacts of antiretroviral therapy.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Inequalities in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) cascade across subpopulations remain an ongoing challenge in the global HIV response. Eswatini achieved the UNAIDS 95-95-95 ART cascade targets by 2020, with differentiated programs to minimize inequalities across subpopulations, including for female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients. We sought to estimate the impacts of this achievement, through a retrospective impact evaluation of ART scale-up in Eswatini.

Design

Drawing on population-level and FSW-specific surveys, we developed a compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission, and calibrated it to observed HIV prevalence, incidence, and ART cascade scale-up in Eswatini.

Methods

We defined four counterfactual scenarios in which the population overal

SUBMITTER: Knight J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12863613 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature