Estimating the incidence of heart failure: Insights from an illness-death model using statutory health insurance data from 70 million people in Germany.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Heart Failure (HF) is a considerable public health issue that affects more than 64 million people worldwide, with a prevalence of 1% to 3% in Western industrialized countries. However, reliable data on the incidence of HF are lacking, making it difficult to assess. The aim of our study was to estimate the age- and sex-specific incidence of HF in Germany using the illness-death model (IDM) and an associated partial differential equation (PDE), based on aggregated prevalence and mortality data.

Methods

Prevalence data for 2009-2017 were used from the Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance (Zi). Data on HF mortality were taken from a comparable Norwegian population from 2013. A PDE using a bootstrapping approach was used to calculate HF incidence. The est

SUBMITTER: Wagner M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12863671 | biostudies-literature | 2026

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature