Modeling HBV transmission dynamics in Indonesia (2024-2030) using a SIVRM model: Evaluating optimal control strategies for elimination by 2030.

ABSTRACT: Hepatitis B remains a global health concern. Achieving the World Health Organization's (WHO) goal of eliminating the disease by 2030 requires a comprehensive understanding of its transmission dynamics. This study aimed to develop and apply an extended SIVRM (Susceptible-Infected-Vaccinated-Recovered-Mortality) model to simulate hepatitis B transmission in Indonesia and to evaluate optimal vaccination strategies. The model comprises 14 compartments that distinguish between vertical and horizontal transmission, account for vaccination and loss of immunity, and incorporate hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation among recovered individuals, a novel feature of this model. Parameters were estimated using data from the Social Security Administrator for Health (BPJS Kesehatan) from 2019 to 2023 thro

SUBMITTER: Arkok HS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12863686 | biostudies-literature | 2026

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature