Tracking country-level mitigation progress using NGHGI-consistent carbon budgets.

ABSTRACT: The remaining carbon budget (RCB) of countries provides a benchmark for evaluating national mitigation efforts and was central to a recent European Court of Human Rights' ruling. However, estimates of national RCBs are inconsistent with CO₂ accounting in national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, we align RCBs with NGHGI accounting standards. For 2024, NGHGI alignment reduces the 1.5 °C (50%) global RCB by  ~100 GtCO₂ ( ≈ 50%) and the 2 °C (66%) RCB by  ~200 GtCO₂ ( ≈ 20%). Thus, we estimate the 1.5 °C (50%) NGHGI-consistent global RCB to be depleted by 2027. We provide NGHGI-consistent national RCBs for common allocation methods and most countries. Following Paris Agreement equity principles, we find that by 2025, 64-85 countries could have exceed

SUBMITTER: Weber K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12905252 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature