Modelling land use-induced foraging distributions of flying foxes and emerging spillover risks.

ABSTRACT: Despite their critical role as reservoir hosts for many zoonotic diseases, the impact of land-use and land-cover changes (LCLUC) on flying foxes' interactions with humans remains unclear, posing a potential public health risk. To address this, we apply optimal foraging theory and individual-based modelling to simulate flying-fox movement and population dynamics under various LCLUC scenarios. After validating our model against available data, we analyze the effects of agriculturalization, urbanization, forest fragmentation, and reforestation on flying-fox densities across synthetic landscapes of urban, forest, orchard, and water-body habitats. Our findings indicate that habitat disruption-particularly fragmentation through urbanization-significantly increases the risk of zoonotic spillover

SUBMITTER: Stafford E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12907234 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature