Performance thresholds, efficiency, and access equity in junior girls' tennis: longitudinal analysis and bayesian forecasting of ITF rankings (2004-2029).

ABSTRACT:

Background

Percentile-based thresholds in the International Tennis Federation (ITF) junior ranking system are widely used to gauge competitive standing, yet little is known about their long-term dynamics, systemic biases, and predictive validity. Total Ranking Points (TRP) reflect cumulative achievement but are affected by tournament volume and access. Points per Event (PPE) have therefore been proposed as a complementary efficiency-based metric. The age at which thresholds are reached and the geographic distribution of top performers are critical for understanding developmental timing and equity of access.

Objectives

This study aimed to (1) quantify and forecast cut-off thresholds (P₉₀, P₇₅, P₅₀) categories using TRP and PPE; (2) examine the

SUBMITTER: Bozdech M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12910927 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature