Scenario-dependent northward shifts in wintering centroids of Anatidae in South Korea.

ABSTRACT: Climate and land-use change are reshaping the spatial ecology of migratory waterbirds, yet few studies in East Asia have quantitatively integrated ensemble species distribution models, land-cover dynamics, and multi-scenario climate projections to assess future shifts and fragmentation of wintering habitats. We quantified climate-driven changes in the wintering distributions of six rice-paddy-dependent Anatidae species across South Korea using an ensemble species distribution modelling framework integrating nine algorithms. Species occurrence data from GBIF and field surveys (2022-2024) were combined with land-cover, topographic, and bioclimatic variables, with future projections generated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) and four time periods (2021

SUBMITTER: Choi HI 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12916801 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature