Assimilative causal inference.

ABSTRACT: Causal inference is fundamental across scientific disciplines, yet existing methods struggle to capture instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems. In this paper, assimilative causal inference (ACI) is developed, which is a methodological framework that leverages Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes backward from observed effects. ACI solves the inverse problem rather than quantifying forward influence. It uniquely identifies dynamic causal interactions without requiring observations of candidate causes, accommodates short datasets, and, in principle, can be implemented in high-dimensional settings by employing efficient data assimilation algorithms. Crucially, it provides online tracking of causal roles that may reverse intermittently and

SUBMITTER: Andreou M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12920611 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature