Burden of Non-communicable Diseases Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperatures, 1990-2031: A Forecasting Analysis for GBD 2021.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), characterized by long duration, gradual progression, and high morbidity, have emerged as a fundamental threat to global public health. Furthermore, dramatic climate change may exacerbate existing trends that worsen the burden of NCDs. Therefore, this study aimed to systematically investigate the patterns and trends of NCDs attributed to nonoptimal temperatures from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 to assess the temporal trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) related to nonoptimal temperature-associated NCDs across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Decomposition analysis was applied to quantify the contributio

SUBMITTER: Pu L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12948918 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature