Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, the use of multi-model ensemble projections in infectious disease modeling has become an established methodological approach to account for and integrate across uncertainties and structural differences present in individual models. However, the creation of long-term ensemble projections through these coordinated efforts is resource-intensive, demanding the input of multiple research teams and substantial computational power. This typically limits the ability to refine projections, update the selection of plausible epidemic trajectories, or expand the number of scenarios that can be assessed, even as new empirical data become available. To address this challenge, we define an adaptive ensemble approach that, analogously to a multi-model particle filtering method, dynamicall

SUBMITTER: Fiandrino S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC13345484 | biostudies-literature | 2026 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature