Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a

SUBMITTER: Neelin JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1435369 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature