Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics.

Methods and findings

To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. The

SUBMITTER: Cooper BS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1450020 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature