Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza in domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the possible evolution of a novel human strain [1]. If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most countries will then be focused on reducing morbidity and mortality.

Methods and findings

We estimate the expected reduction in primary attack rates for different household-based interventions using a mathematical model of influenza transmission within and between households. We show that, for lower transmissibility strains [2,4], the combination of household-based quarantine, isolation of cases outside the household, and targeted prophylactic use of anti-virals will be highly effecti

SUBMITTER: Wu JT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1526768 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature