From descriptive to predictive distribution models: a working example with Iberian amphibians and reptiles.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Aim of the study was to identify the conditions under which spatial-environmental models can be used for the improved understanding of species distributions, under the explicit criterion of model predictive performance. I constructed distribution models for 17 amphibian and 21 reptile species in Portugal from atlas data and 13 selected ecological variables with stepwise logistic regression and a geographic information system. Models constructed for Portugal were extrapolated over Spain and tested against range maps and atlas data.

Results

Descriptive model precision ranged from 'fair' to 'very good' for 12 species showing a range border inside Portugal ('edge species', kappa (k) 0.35-0.89, average 0.57) and was at best 'moderate' for 26 species with a countrywide

SUBMITTER: Arntzen JW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1534039 | biostudies-literature | 2006 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature