Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change.

ABSTRACT: Many diverse infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics. Seasonality in disease incidence has been attributed to seasonal changes in pathogen transmission rates, resulting from fluctuations in extrinsic climate factors. Multi-strain infectious diseases with strain-specific seasonal signatures, such as cholera, indicate that a range of seasonal patterns in transmission rates is possible in identical environments. We therefore consider pathogens capable of evolving their 'seasonal phenotype', a trait that determines the sensitivity of their transmission rates to environmental variability. We introduce a theoretical framework, based on adaptive dynamics, for predicting the evolution of disease dynamics in seasonal environments. Changes in the seasonality of environmental factors are one im

SUBMITTER: Koelle K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1564099 | biostudies-literature | 2005 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature