Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain.

ABSTRACT: Contingency planning for the possible deliberate reintroduction of smallpox has become a priority for many national public health organizations in recent years. We used an individual-based spatial model of smallpox transmission in Great Britain and census-derived journey-to-work data to accurately describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of an outbreak of smallpox in the community. A Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm was developed to generate sociospatial contact networks that were consistent with demographic and commuting data. We tested the sensitivity of model predictions to key epidemiological parameters before choosing three representative scenarios from within the range explored. We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics for these illustrative scenarios and assessed the efficacy of sympto

SUBMITTER: Riley S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1567931 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature