Simple models for containment of a pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Stochastic simulations of network models have become the standard approach to studying epidemics. We show that many of the predictions of these models can also be obtained from simple classical deterministic compartmental models. We suggest that simple models may be a better way to plan for a threatening pandemic with location and parameters as yet unknown, reserving more detailed network models for disease outbreaks already underway in localities where the social networks are well identified.We formulate compartmental models to describe outbreaks of influenza and attempt to manage a disease outbreak by vaccination or antiviral treatment. The models give an important prediction that may not have been noticed in other models, namely that the number of doses of antiviral treatment required i

SUBMITTER: Arino J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1578753 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature