Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: the effect of the urban-rural divide.

ABSTRACT: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is becoming available in South Africa. Demand will exceed supply; thus, difficult decisions will have to be made in allocating ART. The majority of those treated for HIV are likely to be in cities, because health infrastructure and personnel are concentrated in urban centers. We predict the epidemiological impact of drug allocation strategies (DAS) by using a spatially explicit model that links urban and rural epidemics. We parameterize our model by using data from the KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa. We model the South African government's treatment plan from 2004-2008, and we predict the consequences of one DAS that allocates drugs only to Durban and of two DAS that allocate drugs to both urban and rural areas. All three strategies would treat 500,000

SUBMITTER: Wilson DP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1599939 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature