Project description:'If anticoagulants had been administered sooner, my client would not have died' was a central claim put to us, as statistician expert witnesses, by a Claimant's and Defendant's lawyers. To assist other litigants, and without identifying the specific case, we set out the study types that contribute to the evidence base, and their limitations. We then explain why it is difficult to adduce evidence about the relative risk of dying from pulmonary embolism within 12 hours of admission to accident and emergency even when it is well accepted that anticoagulation reduces the risk of dying within the next seven days of patients at objectively confirmed risk of pulmonary embolism. No matter how much we may want an answer, or how tragic an individual outcome, we can only work from the available evidence or work to improve the evidence base, which needs to be resourced.
Project description:This research analyzes the adverse impact of white noise on collective quantum measurements and argues that such noise poses a significant obstacle for the otherwise straightforward deployment of collective measurements in quantum communications. Our findings then suggests addressing this issue by correlating outcomes of these measurements with quantum state purity. To test the concept, a support vector machine is employed to boost the performance of several collective entanglement witnesses by incorporating state purity into the classification task of distinguishing entangled states from separable ones. Furthermore, the application of machine learning allows to optimize specificity of entanglement detection given a target value of sensitivity. A response operating characteristic curve is reconstructed based on this optimization and the area under curve calculated to assess the efficacy of the proposed model. Finally, we test the presented approach on an experimental dataset of Werner states.
Project description:This paper presents the first full micro costing of a commonly used cancer genetic counselling and testing protocol used in the UK. Costs were estimated for the Cardiff clinic of the Cancer Genetics Service in Wales by issuing a questionnaire to all staff, conducting an audit of clinic rooms and equipment and obtaining gross unit costs from the finance department. A total of 22 distinct event pathways were identified for patients at risk of developing breast, ovarian, breast and ovarian or colorectal cancer. The mean cost per patient were pound sterling 97- pound sterling 151 for patients at moderate risk, pound sterling 975- pound sterling 3072 for patients at high risk of developing colorectal cancer and pound sterling 675- pound sterling 2909 for patients at high risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer. The most expensive element of cancer genetic services was labour. Labour costs were dependent upon the amount of labour, staff grade, number of counsellors used and the proportion of staff time devoted to indirect patient contact. With the growing demand for cancer genetic services and the growing number of national and regional cancer genetic centers, there is a need for the different protocols being used to be thoroughly evaluated in terms of costs and outcomes.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Since April 2015, Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) have taken on the responsibility to commission primary care services. The aim of this paper is to analyse how CCGs have responded to this new responsibility and to identify challenges and factors that facilitated or inhibited achievement of integrated care systems. DESIGN:We undertook an exploratory approach, combining data from interviews and national telephone surveys, with analysis of policy documents and case studies in four CCGs. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS:We reviewed 147 CCG application documents and conducted two national telephone surveys with CCGs (n=49 and n=21). We interviewed 6 senior policymakers and 42 CCG staff who were involved in primary care co-commissioning (general practitioners and managers). We observed 74 primary care commissioning committee meetings and their subgroups (approx. 111 hours). RESULTS:CCGs in our case studies focused their primary care commissioning activities on developing strategic plans, 'new' primary care initiatives, and dealing with legacy work. Many plans focused on incentivising and supporting practices to work together and provide a broad range of services. There was a clear focus on ensuring the sustainability of general practice. Our respondents expressed mixed views as to what new collaborative service models, such as the new models of care and sustainability and transformation partnerships (STPs), would mean for the future of primary care and the impact they could have on CCGs and their members. CONCLUSIONS:There is a disconnect between locally based primary care and the wider system. One of the major challenges we identified is the lack of knowledge and expertise in the field of primary care at STP level. While primary care commissioning by CCGs seems to be supporting local collaborations between practices, there is some way to go before this is translated into broader integration initiatives across wider footprints.
Project description:Biodiversity monitoring plays an essential role in tracking changes in ecosystems, species distributions and abundances across the globe. Data collected through both structured and unstructured biodiversity recording can inform conservation measures designed to reduce, prevent, and reverse declines in valued biodiversity of many types. However, given that resources for biodiversity monitoring are limited, it is important that funding bodies prioritise investments relative to the requirements in any given region. We addressed this prioritisation requirement for a biodiverse Mediterranean island (Cyprus) using a three-stage process of expert-elicitation. This resulted in a structured list of twenty biodiversity monitoring needs; specifically, a hierarchy of three groups of these needs was created using a consensus approach. The most highly prioritised biodiversity monitoring needs were those related to the development of robust survey methodologies, and those ensuring that sufficiently skilled citizens are available to contribute. We discuss ways that the results of our expert-elicitation process could be used to support current and future biodiversity monitoring in Cyprus.
Project description:The cause of adverse weekend clinical outcomes remains unknown. In 2013, the "NHS Services, Seven Days a Week" project was initiated to improve access to services across the seven-day week. Three years on, we sought to analyse the impact of such changes across the English NHS.Aggregated trust-level data on crude mortality rates, Summary Hospital-Level Mortality Indicator (SHMI), mean length of stay (LOS), A&E admission and four-hour breach rates were obtained from national Hospital Episode Statistics and A&E datasets across the English NHS, excluding mental and community health trusts. Trust annual reports were analysed to determine the presence of any seven-day service reorganisation in 2013-2014. Funnel plots were generated to compare institutional performance and a difference in differences analysis was performed to determine the impact of seven-day changes on clinical outcomes between 2013 and 2014, 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. Data was summarised as mean (SD).Of 159 NHS trusts, 79 (49.7%) instituted seven-day changes in 2013-2014. Crude mortality rates, A&E admission rates and mean LOS remained relatively stable between 2013 and 2016, whilst A&E four-hour breach rates nearly doubled from 5.3 to 9.7%. From 2013 to 2014 to 2014-2015 and 2015-2016, there were no significant differences in the change in crude mortality (2014-2015 p = 0.8, 2015-2016 p = 0.9), SHMI (2014-2015 p = 0.5, 2015-2016 p = 0.5), mean LOS (2014-2015 p = 0.5, 2015-2016 p = 0.4), A&E admission (2014-2015 p = 0.6, 2015-2016 p = 1.0) or four-hour breach rates (2014-2015 p = 0.06, 2015-2016 p = 0.6) between trusts that had implemented seven-day changes compared to those which had not.Adverse weekend clinical outcomes may not be ameliorated by large scale reorganisations aimed at improving access to health services across the week. Such changes may negatively impact care quality without additional financial investment, as demonstrated by worsening of some outcomes. Detailed prospective research is required to determine whether such reallocation of finite resources is clinically effective.